Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Fate of Pakistan

Pakistan is at crossroads. Taliban is controlling a huge portion of Pakistan and have already introduced Shariat in those regions. They are armed to teeth and ready to fight. I do not see Pakistan being the same again. There is a chance that this country will be talibanized, broken up, or end up in a civil war.

Option 1

Pakistan will get talibanized if the moderates of Pakistan want to buy peace in the short term. If they don’t want any confrontation and want to put with another tyrannical authority, which they are quite used to in the last sixty years of their existence, the Pakistan middle class will have to swallow their pride and give up their freedoms to buy short term peace. For many Pakistanis the idea of united and single Pakistan is more important than their ephemeral and elusive freedoms. They may walk into an agreement that will impose Shariat law to form a perfect Islamic state. Many young middle class Pakistanis have an idealistic picture of such a state in their heads, especially those who have never lived through such a promise before.

Option 2

Pakistan will be broken up into few countries (at the most two) if the rest of Pakistan outside of Swat Valley and Taliban controlled areas refuse to cooperate with Taliban because they value their freedom more than the idea of a single Pakistan. It could happen if the bulk of middle class Pakistanis define themselves closer to a secular Pakistan without too much emphasis on the interpretation of Shariat and its imposition. They could take the route of Turkey or even the detestable foe and arch enemy India with whom they have a lot in common.

For that Pakistanis have to believe that this could be the only way to salvage the situation that has gone really bad. This also means admitting the mistakes of the past where Pakistan state fostered talibanization within Pakistan and created a monster next door in Afghanistan. The whole sub-continent could learn lessons here. When you try to meddle with a proud culture to take control, wield them and manipulate them, it usually backfires. Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi paid the price with their lives for toying with such hegemonic thoughts when they tried to control Sikhs and Tamils, respectively.

Option 3

If the moderates of Pakistan, supported and aided by Pakistan Army, refuse to accept the rule of Taliban but at the same time try to wrest control away from them to bring Pakistan to its former state – united and free from rule of Taliban, then there will be a civil war. Guns are everywhere. Zealots are everywhere. Pakistan has all the fuel and ammunition to create and sustain a civil war. It just needs a spark. That can come from refusal of rest of Pakistan to concede to Taliban.

6 comments:

  1. I would like to know your opinion about srilanka war and india's current role on it. Could you write on this please?

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  2. [i]Pakistan will get talibanized if the moderates of Pakistan want to buy peace in the short term[/i]

    So true. I have the same fear for the country and its countrymen. You cannot expect much change in the present state of this country unless collective viewpoint towards the future of the state is changed.

    They have to give up on their false egos and pride in order to salvage their freedom.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think pakisthan army dominated by punjabi will prevail over taliban in long run.Pakisthan will stay togethor.Breakway baluchis is not in Iranian or Afgan intrest.Opium trade controls taliban.Good control on drug trafecking is a good control on spread of taliban.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I am from Pakistan. It is sad to see here that there is no mention of Indian help to Pakistani Taliban is mentioned here.

    It is now widely known and unanimously accepted that the rise of Pakistani Taliban (TTP) was solely an Indian/RAW endevour to destabilise Pakistan. A budget of 15 billion Rupees was estimated for TTP who have far superior weaponry and communication equipment than the Pak Army even. the confiscated weapons have been traced to India. The arrested leaders have confessed to the support of RAW.

    Pakistan has video proof of Bait Mehsud(TTP Chief) visiting Indian Consulate in Jalalbad and Kabul.

    India has more than 20 decalred consulates in Afghanistan near Pak border. What is their purpose? It is said they have 200 more undeclared consulates. These consulates serve as the Hub of terrorist planning and is the focal point all deigns against the state of Pakistan.

    India has throughout the history has contributed and inflicted severe damages to my country. We always wanted co-existence. But India never accpeted us. From Kashmir to East Pakistan to Swat to Waziristan Indian terrorism has taken lives of millions of innocent people. They have killed our children and humiliated our women.

    Why does not a normal Indian realises the gravity of the evil design of your government/Army/Intelli. Some do not accept the extent of it. Mainly because of your state controlled media. Maybe most of you are too dazzled in your bollywood life.

    There might be still time to correct all this. Because when we fight back, our strike would reduce your existence into smithereens. Your history and geography would cease to remain and people would not know what the word Bharat meant.

    The choice is yours. You would not have the excuse that you were not warned.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I am from Pakistan. It is sad to see here that there is no mention of Indian help to Pakistani Taliban is mentioned here.
    [You yourself commit that Taliban is now Pakistani!!!]

    It is now widely known and unanimously accepted that the rise of Pakistani Taliban (TTP) was solely an Indian/RAW endevour to destabilise Pakistan. A budget of 15 billion Rupees was estimated for TTP who have far superior weaponry and communication equipment than the Pak Army even. the confiscated weapons have been traced to India. The arrested leaders have confessed to the support of RAW.

    Pakistan has video proof of Bait Mehsud(TTP Chief) visiting Indian Consulate in Jalalbad and Kabul.
    [You have any proof of it, have u seen the video or just making the comment after reading some newspaper report or some TV shows???]

    India has more than 20 decalred consulates in Afghanistan near Pak border. What is their purpose? It is said they have 200 more undeclared consulates. These consulates serve as the Hub of terrorist planning and is the focal point all deigns against the state of Pakistan.
    [There are more than thousands of NATO forces and officials of different countries, why not blame them?]

    India has throughout the history has contributed and inflicted severe damages to my country. We always wanted co-existence. But India never accpeted us. From Kashmir to East Pakistan to Swat to Waziristan Indian terrorism has taken lives of millions of innocent people. They have killed our children and humiliated our women.
    [And you are saints, right??? or I can say angels who have done nothing …]

    Why does not a normal Indian realises the gravity of the evil design of your government/Army/Intelli. Some do not accept the extent of it. Mainly because of your state controlled media. Maybe most of you are too dazzled in your bollywood life.
    [Atleast we have something called media , bollywood, Army , intelli … I think u must be jealous ???]

    There might be still time to correct all this. Because when we fight back, our strike would reduce your existence into smithereens. Your history and geography would cease to remain and people would not know what the word Bharat meant.

    The choice is yours. You would not have the excuse that you were not warned.
    [Good so when are u starting or just waiting for ur Taliban Pakistan to help you get the things in order , or ur incompetent governmet to do so … ]
    See man, it’s simple you must have heard and read the book called “Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia” it’s written by Ahmed Rashid a very good journalist and writer among you people only. Your all doubts will be answered!

    ReplyDelete
  6. pakistan will soon be liberalized by these extremists who are infact the strategic plans of our so called western friends and hostile rival.pakistan cannot be underestimated for the zeal and spark its ppl got!

    ReplyDelete

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