Telangana 50: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

What happens when you give a fire extinguisher to bunch of monkeys? They use it to kill other small animals.  Though a fire extinguisher is designed to save lives, it can become dangerous if the user doesn't know how to use it.  The same holds true with statistics.  If the user doesn't know how to use them and when to use them, they can become lethal.

There are fools and then there are educated fools.  I have not studied Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan of Lok Satta, but was happy to know that he has chosen to fight corruption.  That's laudable.  But in the context of Telangana, I chose to describe Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan as one such educated fool who doesn't know how and where to use these statistics.   This is an excerpt from a chat with him:

There are some more facts. Literacy growth: Telangana : 1143% Rest of AP: 448%.

Some facts: Agricultural implents: Telengana-67% Rest of AP-33% Food grains-Rice growth(1955 to 2006): Telengana-708% Rest of AP-191%. Gross irrigation growth: Telengana-140% Rest of AP-38%.   

 
Because the growth rate in Telangana was high he quickly concludes that Telangana is doing much better than rest of AP.  Detractors of Telangana are using his observations to say that Telangana has never been discriminated - and in fact it developed more and better than rest of AP.

Here are three different countries with GDP growth rates for year 2007.

Country A: 11.1%

Country B: 5.9%

Country C: 2.0%

If you ask Jayaprakash of Lok Satta (JP) which country is doing the best, he and his followers will tell you that Country A is doing the best, followed by Country B, followed by Country C.  If JP was asked which country is far ahead of others, he would say that Country A is far ahead of Country C by many counts.  JP may even tell you that it is much better to live in Country A followed by Country B and the least desirable place would be Country C by all standards.  So, what are these countries?

Country A:  Ethiopia [11.1%]

Country B: Iraq [5.9%]

Country C: United States of America [2.0%]

 

No facts; only interpretations

The problem with statistics is that you can prove almost anything if the listener doesn't know  how the statistics are used.   They say: there are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics.  So, when the lie is biggest it is supported by a flawed statistic.  JP must have learnt the art of lying from his brothers at Satyam who have deceived this country and people for more than 7 years with cooked up statistics, where more than 13,000 fictitious army of engineers worked, had bank accounts and even drawn provident fund – except that they all existed only on paper, not in real life.

‘Statistics’ on Backwardness

It is a foregone conclusion amongst Andhras, clearly evident from so many comments written here, that Srikakulam is one of the most backward districts in Andhra Pradesh.  Some Andhras cited that district as an example to continuously tell us that backwardness is universal, that their district is backward than most Telangana districts. 

They also repeatedly tell you that Hyderabad is the most prosperous city in Andhra Pradesh, that this city was developed by Andhras with their hands (literally) and that it is the only reason why Telanganas are fighting for a new state, to bag this coveted crown jewel of AP.

Look at the graph here where improvement in Human Development Index (HDI) is discussed for various districts in AP:

From this graph, JP will conclude that Srikakulam is one of the most progressive districts in entire Andhra Pradesh.  He will tell you that Srikakulam is doing the best in the entire state while Hyderabad is doing the worst (it is at the bottom).  That it is much better to live in Srikakulam on all counts compared to Hyderabad.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. One look at the fields of Telangana and Andhra would tell you the state of affairs.   Facts can be interpreted the way you want to.   India did not fight for independence from Britain on a statistic.  Andhra State was not formed from Madras State on a statistic. What we need is a political decision, not a statistical report.

In fact, none of the states, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, were formed on a statistic.  None of the states in Northeast, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, were formed on a statistic.  Even the most recent states, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand or Uttarakhand were not formed on a statistic.  There are some districts in Madhya Pradesh which are more backward than districts of Chattisgarh.  There are some districts in Uttar Pradesh which are more backward than districts of Uttarakhand.  There will always be some districts which are backward even in the the prosperous states like Gujarat and Punjab.  The formation of state, like formation of a country is not based solely on backwardness of few districts.  You have to see the picture holistically - I don't think JP et al can do that. 

More importantly, percentage increase can become an extremely flawed statistic if you don't know how to interpret it - as shown above.

SriKrishna Committee will surprise you

Beware Telanganas, you are in for a big surprise.  Another Satyam is in the making right in front of your eyes.  This campaign of misinterpretation and obfuscation of reality using numbers is only going to intensify.  There are thousands of schools on the paper, none exist in reality.  There is rice on the paper, none exist in reality.  There are facts on the paper, but none exist in reality.  The government is not in your hands. They will cook up facts and show that the poor orphan on  an Indian street is the Bill Gates in disguise.

Unless the SriKrishna Committee members actually tour the villages of Andhra Pradesh, they will never know the truth.  Andhras will cook up another Satyam and prove that the most backward districts of Telangana are in fact more prosperous than Beverly Hills of California.  And that’s why they celebrate the formation of SriKrishna Committee. 

My only word of advice: Beware.